How much traffic do Google AI Overviews cost publishers?

A randomized field experiment (Agarwal & Sen, Carnegie Mellon/ISB, April 2026) found AI Overviews reduce outbound organic clicks by 38% per triggered search, with zero-click searches rising from 54% to 72%. Chartbeat data shows small publishers lost around 60% of Google referral traffic, medium publishers 47%, large publishers 22%. Digital Trends lost 97% of organic traffic in 22 months. The AI Traffic Collapse Index at bearth.io/data tracks these studies in one citable place.

BEARTH DATA · Updated July 2026 · CC BY 4.0

The AI Traffic Collapse Index.

Every credible study measuring how AI search kills publisher clicks — curated on one page, updated monthly, free to cite and embed with attribution. Maintained by Saimen Bearth as the data layer behind the Traffic-Free Income Audit.

−38%

outbound organic clicks per search with an AI Overview present

Agarwal & Sen, Carnegie Mellon / ISB — randomized field experiment, 1,065 participants, SSRN, Apr 2026

72%

of searches end without any click when an AI Overview is shown (up from 54%)

Agarwal & Sen, Carnegie Mellon / ISB — same experiment, Apr 2026

−60%

Google referral traffic lost by small publishers

Chartbeat data via Axios / 9to5Google, Mar 2026

−97%

organic Google traffic lost by Digital Trends in 22 months (8.5M → 265K monthly visits)

Growtika analysis of Ahrefs data, Feb 2026

Google referral traffic lost, by publisher size

Chartbeat data via Axios · March 2026 · larger bar = more traffic lost

Small publishers

−60%

Medium publishers

−47%

Large publishers

−22%

The collapse is inverse to size: the smaller the publisher, the harder the hit. Single-site extreme: Digital Trends, −97% in 22 months (Growtika/Ahrefs).

−61% / −68%

organic / paid CTR when AI Overviews are present

Seer Interactive, Sep 2025

−42%

search clicks across 64 publisher sites; evergreen content hit hardest

Define Media Group via Search Engine Land, Mar 2026

+103%

organic growth for breaking/time-pegged content — the format AI can't answer yet

Define Media Group, Mar 2026

Primary sources

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Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0). One click, ready to paste:

The AI Traffic Collapse Index, curated by Saimen Bearth (BEARTH), July 2026. bearth.io/data

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